From seasons 2-6, and 7 of American Idol, I have always dedicated one blog to handicapping the top 12 (10) finalists. It is usually one of my favorite Idol-related blogs of the year.

This year’s competition features significantly fewer “straw men” than in previous years.  I am expecting several surprise eliminations before everything is all said and done.

So here is my list of odds of winning as well as order of elimination.

GOOD CHANCE OF WINNING
1.    David Archuleta 3 to 1
2.    Brooke White 5 to 1
3.    Carly Smithson 7 to 1
4.    Michael Johns 10 to 1
SOME CHANCE OF WINNING:
5.    Jason Castro 15 to 1
6.    Syesha Mercado 25 to 1
7.    David Cook 40 to 1
8.    Ramiele Mulabay 50 to 1
LITTLE-TO-NO CHANCE OF WINNING:
9.    Amanda Overmeyer 100 to 1
10.    Kristy Lee Cook 500 to 1
11.    Chikeze 600 to 1
12.    David Hernandez 601 to 1


Category-by-category in-depth:

GOOD CHANCE OF WINNING: 

I don’t think that Idol has ever had a contestant stronger than David Archuleta.  The only contestant who may have been closer to “winning it before it started” was Fantasia.

Brooke and Carly are both really polished.  My guess is that America loves Brooke a bit more, but Carly isn’t far behind.

Recently Michael Johns smells a bit like Constantine, but his adoring older female fans will keep him in for a long time.  Personally, I am already tired of him.

SOME CHANCE OF WINNING: 

Jason Castro will stay for a long time.  I’d guess that many people see his awkwardness as kind of charming.  He’s okay. . .

Syesha has the same style as earlier contestant Nadiah Turner, but I don’t think she sings as well.  Nadia was eliminated seventh, I predict similar for Syesha.  Does Syesha strike a chord with the voters?  I doubt it, but I may be wrong. . .

David and Ramiele are both really talented.  Both of them are however likely to hit the wall right before the competition comes into the home stretch.

LITTLE-TO-NO CHANCE OF WINNING:

Amanda is horrible. She belongs in a 60s tribute band.  Can she fool us, ala Taylor Hicks?  I think not.

Kristy Lee Cook (my favorite female contestant) will go the way of all of my personal favorites.  Pretty, but not good enough.  Eliminated early.  (See: Julia DaMato)

Chikeze and David: each of these guys is one bad performance away from being eliminated/ one good performance away from getting one more week.