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Last year I did a little bit of amateur handicapping on American Idol.  I gave each contestant odds on how far they'd go.  Here goes my shot at this year's batch of contestants.  Let's see how my predictions hold up.  (I will list the contestants from most- to least- likely to win, plus non-official odds and comments.)

It is a lot harder to pick a favorite this year than last year (Fantasia was too easylast year, and this year's field is really exceptional.)  But my prediction for the eventual winner is Nadia.

Most Likely to Win:

1) Nadia Turner 9:1.  Nadia is beautiful and talented.  The judges love everything she does too.  She has a talent for "making lemonade out of lemons," which will help her make it through the various theme weeks.

2) Bo Bice 15:1.  Bo is the best singer and performer in the competition.  (American Idol's answer to Norway's Kurt Nilssen.)  Bo is my personal favorite, but I think he might get squeezed out right at the end.

3) Anthony Federov 20:1.  Coming out of Hollywood, I thought that Anthony had the most momentum.  He did fairly well in the studio shows.  It seems like he is beginning to build toward a peak.  I'll bet that Anthony will show the most improvement between this point and the point when (or if) he's eventually eliminated.

4) Jessica Sierra 20:1.  Jessica showed that a contestant can overcome lack-of-screentime prior to the "voting shows."  Jessica's talents will likely continue to carry her far.

5) Anwar Robinson 25:1.  Anwar has a beautiful voice, and he's reasonably handsome. He isn't terribly exciting however.  I don't know how fervent his fanbase will be.

6) Carrie Underwood 30:1. Carrie started out really strong, but has drifted into kind of a boring limbo since then.

7) Vonzell Solomon 30:1.  Vonzell is one of my favorites in the ladies' group.  She could improve her odds with one or two knockout performances.  (I am about 50/50 on whether she has it in her at this point.  We'll see...)

8) Scott Savol 40:1.  Scott might monopolize the "underdog vote" for a while.  I like Scott, and it seems like the other contestants have really warmed-up to him too.  (I don't know this, it is just the feeling I get when I see everyone on TV together.)  Scott is a fantastic singer, but I wonder how versatile he actually is.  He may hit the wall during a theme week.

9) Mikalah Gordon 70:1.  I don't think that wide swaths of America will "fall in love" with Mikalah.  Her singing has taken a bit of a dip lately too.

10) Lindsey Cardinale 70:1.  Lindsey seems like a really nice lady to have a conversation with.  I like her segments on television.  Her singing so far hasn't been bad, but it hasn't been excellent either.  She may be an early victim of a crowded field.

11) Nikko Smith 80:1.  Recently reinstated following the surprise withdrawal of Mario Vazquez.  Nikko is a good singer, so his inclusion in the top-twelve is as good of a choice as any.  I wonder whether Nikko will take this second chance to work to better relate to the audience.

12) Constantine Maroulis 80:1.  Constantine was by far my favorite coming out of Hollywood.  Since then I have been really disappointed by his showing.  Of all the contestants, I feel that Constantine may be the one who will get votes from a certain segment of viewers regardless of how he actually does on a particular night.  By putting him at the bottom of this list I am not predicting that he'll be the first eliminated, but I am predicting that he is the least likely to win it all.

Least Likely to Win

Withdrawn: 2) Mario Vazquez 10:1.  Good singer and handsome in a "pop-idol" sort of way.  He'll get a lot of support from what I'd think the producers of Idol would consider to be their target audience.